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Topic summary · Statistics (S1)

Probability summary

A-level probability develops trees, Venn methods, conditional probability and independence.

Files: S1-Probability.pdf · S1-Probability answers.pdf · free public downloads · diagrams in the PDFs

Key learning points

  • P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B).
  • Independent events: P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B).
  • Conditional P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)P(A|B)=\frac{P(A\cap B)}{P(B)}.
  • Multiply along tree branches; add mutually exclusive paths.

Worked example 1 — Simple probability

Fair die. P(prime)P(\text{prime})?

Working

P=36=12P=\tfrac{3}{6}=\tfrac{1}{2}

Primes: 2, 3, 5.

Worked example 2 — Complement

If P(A)=0.35P(A)=0.35, find P(A′)P(A').

Working

P(A′)=1−0.35=0.65P(A')=1-0.35=0.65

Complementary probabilities sum to 1.

Worked example 3 — Independent events

Two fair coins. P(two heads)P(\text{two heads})?

Working

12×12=14\tfrac{1}{2}\times\tfrac{1}{2}=\tfrac{1}{4}

Multiply independent probabilities.

Worked example 4 — Conditional

P(A)=0.6P(A)=0.6, P(A∩B)=0.2P(A\cap B)=0.2. Find P(B∣A)P(B|A).

Working

13\frac{1}{3}

Divide the joint probability by P(A)P(A).

Scaffolded Learning Sheet and answers (PDFs)

This page is a short, searchable overview for revision and search engines. Use the Scaffolded Learning Sheet first, then the Answers PDF for a full written solution. The printable PDFs remain the main classroom resource.